Physical climate risks

FLOOD

Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of floods due to higher annual average precipitation, more extreme rainfall, and increased water flow.

Property-specific risks:

Floods cause water intrusion, leading to damage to the property as well as potential operational disruptions.

RiskMap parameters:

• 50-year flow based on global data shows areas that would be flooded during an event statistically expected to occur once every 50 years. Flood risk is presented as a relative change compared to the reference period (1971–2000).
• 100-year flow based on local data shows areas that would be flooded during an event statistically expected to occur once every 100 years.
• Estimated maximum flow based on local data shows areas that would be flooded when all natural factors contributing to high flow interact, such as snowmelt, precipitation, and water-saturated soil.

Timeframe: 2100 (2071-2100)

Scenarios: RCP 8.5

LANDSLIDES, ROCKFALLS, AND EROSION

The risk of landslides, rockfalls, and erosion is expected to increase as a result of climate change, particularly due to higher precipitation, increased runoff and water flow, and rising sea levels. These factors make areas with previously stable ground more vulnerable.

Property-specific risks:

Landslides, rockfalls, and erosion can compromise ground stability and cause significant physical damage to properties. This, in turn, can lead to structural collapses, damage to adjacent buildings, as well as economic losses and operational disruptions.

RiskMap parameters:

The risk of landslides, rockfalls, and erosion is assessed using local data and shows areas where ground movements have previously occurred, as well as areas with increased risk based on historical data, soil studies, and detailed soil type mapping. These parameters help identify potential risk zones to support preventive measures.

Timeframe: Historical data

Scenarios: Historical data

FIRE RISK

As a result of climate change, periods of increased risk for forest and wildfires will become longer, with an earlier start to the season.

Property-specific risks:

Forest and wildfires near the property lead to poor air quality, operational disruptions, and can even ignite the property.

RiskMap parameter:

Days with high fire risk indicate the number of hot, dry, and windy days with a Fire Weather Index (FWI) value above 30, according to the definition in EFFIS (European Forest Fire Information System). These days are considered to have favorable conditions for the occurrence and spread of wildfires.

Timeframe: 2050 (2041-2070), 2100 (2071-2100)

Scenarios: RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5

DROUGHT

Water availability is expected to change in the future, and climate scenarios indicate a reduced water supply in certain parts of the world.

Property-specific risks:

Drought entails the loss of flora and fauna in the property's surrounding area, as well as increased costs for irrigation needs.

RiskMap parameter:

Changes in the dry period take into account the number of days with heatwaves and low precipitation. The indicator describes the severity of drought over a year, based on the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3), compared to a reference period (1981–2010).

Timeframe: 2050 (2041-2070), 2100 (2071-2100)

Scenarios: RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5

HEAT STRESS

Average global temperatures are rising, leading to longer and more intense heatwaves. This results in increased cooling demands for buildings and higher energy consumption.

RiskMap parameter:

Change in the length of heatwaves, based on a climatological definition where heatwaves exceed the 99th percentile of maximum temperatures from May to September, compared to the reference period (1981-2010).

Timeframe: 2050 (2041-2070), 2100 (2071-2100)

Scenarios: RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5

PRECIPITATION STRESS

Increased rainfall and heavier downpours will lead to more frequent flooding.

Property-specific risks:

Water intrusion due to precipitation stress leads to moisture damage and overloading of drainage systems.

RiskMap parameter:

The frequency of extreme precipitation is calculated as the number of days with rainfall above the extreme threshold, defined as the 95th percentile of total rainfall on rainy days, relative to a reference period (1981-2010).

Timeframe: 2050 (2041-2070), 2100 (2071-2100)

Scenarios:: RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5

RISING SEA LEVELS

Rising sea levels threaten to inundate coastal areas, which can lead to flooding and extensive property damage.

RiskMap parameter:

Sea level rise based on the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM), which considers dynamic factors such as tides, swell waves, and mean sea levels, compared to a reference period (1986-2005).

Timeframe: 2050 (2041-2070), 2100 (2071-2100)

Scenarios: RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5

WIND

Extreme wind events, in combination with storm surges and high waves, can exacerbate coastal erosion and lead to flooding.

Property-specific risks::

Strong winds can cause extensive damage to roofs, facades, windows, and foundations, as well as power outages due to downed power lines.

RiskMap parameter:

Days with extreme wind speeds are calculated as the number of days in a month, season, or year when the wind speed at 10 meters exceeds the extreme threshold, defined as the 98th percentile of wind speeds during a reference period (1981-2010).

Timeframe:: 2050 (2041-2070), 2100 (2071-2100)

Scenarios:: RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5